Opportunity: Could the Event Have Happened as Alleged

Independent Military Defense Investigations

Supporting Attorneys, Service Members, and Families

Publication Date: August 24, 2026

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Executive Summary

Before deciding what probably happened, an investigator should determine what was realistically possible.

Opportunity analysis examines whether a person could have been at the required location, had access, completed the alleged actions, and moved through the proposed sequence within the available time.

This Authority Publication explains how military defense investigators test opportunity using location evidence, distance, duty records, access logs, transportation, witnesses, physical conditions, and realistic travel times.

Opportunity does not prove that an event occurred, but the absence of opportunity can seriously challenge a theory. Investigators should avoid relying on rough estimates when records, maps, measurements, or reenactment can provide better information.

The goal is to test the allegation against the practical circumstances of time and place.

If the sequence requires assumptions that the evidence cannot support, those assumptions should be identified rather than quietly built into the conclusion.

Who Should Read This Publication?

Military defense attorneys preparing or evaluating UCMJ cases
Service members and families seeking to understand the investigative process
Private investigators supporting military defense counsel
Investigators reviewing evidence, witnesses, records, and timelines

Download the Official Authority Publication (PDF)

Companion Video

This companion video expands on the investigative concepts presented in this Authority Publication through additional explanation, practical examples, and professional investigative insight.

About Michael West

The investigative guidance presented throughout these Authority Publications is based upon decades of professional experience conducting military, federal, criminal, civil, and private investigations. The principles discussed in these publications are drawn from real investigative work involving complex cases, witness development, evidence analysis, and factual case preparation.

Michael West has served as a Special Agent with the United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations (AFOSI) and the Department of Defense Inspector General, conducted federal background investigations, and spent decades working as a licensed private investigator supporting attorneys, businesses, service members, and private clients. Throughout his career, his work has focused on identifying facts, locating witnesses, analyzing evidence, and strengthening the factual foundation of legal cases through independent investigation.

The Military Defense Investigation Knowledge Base was created to share that investigative experience in a practical, understandable format. Its purpose is to help attorneys, service members, and families better understand the investigative process, ask more informed questions, and recognize opportunities where independent investigation may strengthen the defense.

Important Information

This Authority Publication is provided for educational and informational purposes and is intended to help readers better understand military defense investigations and the investigative process. It is based upon professional investigative experience and is designed to provide practical investigative insight rather than legal advice.

Every military case is unique. The investigative strategies, factual issues, and legal considerations applicable to one case may not apply to another. Readers should consult with a qualified attorney regarding legal rights, legal strategy, and decisions involving their individual circumstances.

Nothing contained in this publication should be interpreted as creating an attorney-client relationship or an investigator-client relationship. References to investigative techniques, procedures, or case examples are provided solely to illustrate investigative principles and should not be considered legal guidance.

Effective military defense is strengthened by informed legal representation supported by thorough factual investigation. The purpose of these Authority Publications is to help readers better understand that investigative process so they can communicate more effectively with qualified legal counsel and make informed decisions throughout the military justice process.